A-Shares at Crossroads After Triangle Breakout
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In the oft-turbulent world of stock markets, resilience can frequently be testedOn a recent Friday, the A-share market in China showcased remarkable tenacity, defying the downward trends seen in global counterparts, particularly the U.S. stock market, which has been experiencing a downward driftAn illustrative point to consider is the NASDAQ index, which dipped by 0.47%, marking yet another low point in adjustments following a notable decline mid-week.
Amid this backdrop of global uncertainty, A-shares projected a narrative of independenceWhile the performance of the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.45%, may not fully reveal this unique story, a glance at the Wind All A Index offers a different perspective with a modest gain of 0.29% on that particular Friday.
For those who keep an eye on market indices such as the Wind All A Equal-weighted Index, gains soared to 1.06%. The surge was particularly pronounced in two specific sectors: small-cap stocks and semiconductorsNoteworthy performances included the CSI 1000 Index, which climbed by 1.04%, and the CSI 2000 Index, which rose by 1.33%. The recovery of the Wind Micro-cap Stock Index, with an impressive increase of 1.96%, signaled a renewed vigor.
The semiconductor sector also exhibited robust growth; the CSI All Index Semiconductor climbed by an astonishing 3.55%, boosting the computer sector by 0.90%. This momentum fed into the Star Market indices as well, with the STAR 50 Index increasing by 1.83% and the STAR 100 Index by 1.84%. Such upward trajectories hint at a broader potential for growth, especially considering the adjustments that the STAR 50 Index had previously undergone, bringing it within a bullish potential range.
However, there remains a caveat regarding the current A-share market, which still finds itself in a contracting volume environmentThis scenario can be likened to trying to set up a religious ceremony in a shell of a nutA lack of substantial volume often restricts a widespread blossoming, leading to selectivity in stock investments
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On that Friday, speculative capital gravitated towards small-caps and semiconductors, at the expense of other sectors like the ChiNext board.
Turning to the larger market, the CSI 300 index, especially within value sectors, faced similar challengesThis uneven pattern of fluctuations over the past five trading sessions has generally drawn the A-share market downwardsThe Wind All A Index's decline clocked in at 1.08%, while the Wind All A Equal-weighted Index plunged by 2.53%. Interestingly, market enthusiasm did not seem deeply affected by these declinesThere always appeared to be sectors that performed well, creating pockets of profitability.
The psychological landscape for investors—both individual stockholders and traders—shows a fascinating strength against the backdrop of individual stock declinesWhat investors genuinely fear is not just losses but a complete absence of profit opportunitiesProvided the market continues to flash signals of profitability, investors will likely feel a sense of empowerment, believing they can identify and ride trends successfullyThis means that, even with a generally bearish A-share market in the current week, the situation is not as dire as it might initially seem.
By contrast, the mood among bond investors, particularly in the realm of government bonds, appears notably more optimisticOn that same Friday, for instance, the 30-year government bond index ETF surged by 1.45%, recovering losses from earlier days and lifting the weekly performance to a commendable 0.87% increase—a promising trajectory that indicates proximity to new highs for bond markets.
Delving deeper into technical analysis, the Wind All A Index seems to be forming a converging triangle patternThis technical structure suggests that, as long as it holds, investors are inching closer to a significant directional decisionThe modest upward line seen on Friday just managed to reclaim the five-day moving average, although it remains constrained by the ten-day moving average.
The week ahead is crucial in determining whether the Wind All A Index can maintain its upward momentum, particularly with hopes of breaking above that Friday's peak
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Achieving such a feat would favorably influence market sentimentThe converging triangle equips investors with a cautiously optimistic outlook until the index retreats below Thursday's lows, which would breach the lower edge of this triangle.
Shifting the conversation from A-shares to my own investment strategy within mutual funds, I made a strategic decision last Thursday to invest in the GF "Super Regular Investor" fundThis time, I opted for a conservative investment of only 0.5 sharesAccording to the insights released by the "Super Regular Investor" this period, the market valuation remains relatively elevatedGiven various factors such as trading sentiment and macroeconomic analysis, a cautious approach was warranted.
I resonate with the recent prudence displayed by GF "Super Regular Investor", particularly following their signal to take profits in early OctoberReflecting back, I had mentioned this profit-taking signal earlierThe accompanying graphic laid out my recent trading record, with blue markers denoting the points where I sold; I must admit, my timing was fairly accurate on that dayAlthough I didn’t sell at the absolute peak on October 8, I did manage to exit around the second-highest point before the market corrected.
It’s important to note that after selling, all four of my subsequent investment points (not yet captured in this week’s graphic) occurred at lower levels than my selling pointThis indicates that my approach of taking profits followed by strategic re-investment allowed me to effectively navigate a small trading wave, further reducing my position cost.
Upon reviewing my trading history, I noted that the amount I sold for profit was approximately 14,000 yuanFor the following four investments — three at an incremental 1,500 yuan (0.5 times the initial investment) and one at 3,000 yuan (1 times the initial investment) — I used a total of 7,500 yuanThis speaks to a prudent strategy where not all profits generated during the sell-off were fully utilized in subsequent investments
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